Rangers Cardinals Game 6 Pick
A rainy day in St Louis yesterday postponed Game 6 and we are now ready for what could be the last game of the 2011 MLB season. The Rangers lead 3-2 and look to close things out in Game 7 so they don’t have to face a winner takes on Game 7 in St Louis Friday night.
I think the Cardinals should be able to force a deciding Game 7 tomorrow night with Garcia on the mound tonight, and I like the line enough to make it a 2 unit play….
With the number of times I’ve been backing the Cardinals lately it looks like I am a St Louis fan haha, but that definitely isn’t the case – I’ve just found value taking them here as they don’t seem to be getting enough credit.
Texas Rangers @ St Louis Cardinals – CARDINALS TO WIN (-115)
(Note: I’m risking 2.30 units to win 2 units)
The Texas Rangers send Colby Lewis to the mound tonight for Game 6. Lewis has always seemed to pitched pretty well in the postseason, even though he is an average starting pitcher during the regular season (4.40 ERA this season). In these playoffs Lewis is 1-1 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .191 opponents batting average. In his start in Game 2 he lasted 6.2 innings giving up just 1 run on 4 hits. On the mound for the Cardinals is Jaime Garcia, who the Cardinals had set up to pitch twice at home (and for good reasons). During the regular season Garcia went 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA at home (compared to 4.61 road ERA) with a 1.11 WHIP, and .230 opponents batting average. Garcia’s home ERA in these playoffs is under 2.00, and he pitched 7 shutout innings against the Rangers in Game 2 where he struck out 7 while walking just 1 batter. Take note that the Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 World Series home games, and 13-5 in their last 18 home games overall. The Cardinals are 11-2 in Garcia’s last 13 home starts vs a team with a winning record, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite, and 9-2 in his last 11 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Cardinals have played well in this World Series but a few mistakes have cost them (both by the players and the coaches). Also note that the Cards left 12 runners on base in Game 5 – a game I thought they should have won. Tonight’s play comes down to pitching and home field advantage. The Cardinals face elimination and Tony La Russa will do everything he can to force a Game 7 tomorrow night. Jaime Garcia has been lights out at home and I expect nothing less tonight with the Cardinals down 3-2. Take St Louis to win tonight.