The good news out of it all is that we are still showing a profit on the season, and 3-2 on the 5 star picks.  Let’s keep our heads up heading into the weekend and have a good one.  Thursday’s plays is an AFTERNOON GAME.

Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals – OVER 9 RUNS (+101)  ***2:10 PM EST START**
Listed Pitchers: Matusz vs Hochevar
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 2.02 units)

After a 15 inning game last night the Orioles and Royals will play this afternoon for a 2:00 PM EST start.  Baltimore will send Brian Matusz to the mound, who is 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and .312 opponents batting average.  In his road starts this year he is 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA.  Luke Hochevar is on the mound for the Royals and although he is coming off a game where he allowed just 3 hits and 0 earned runs he is still just 3-3 on the season with a high 7.20 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .302 opponents batting average.  Both of these two teams are average over 4 runs per game this season, with Baltimore averaging almost 5 runs per game on the road at 4.88.  The OVER is 9-4 in the Orioles last 13 overall, and 17-8-2 in their last 27 road games dating back to last season.  The OVER is 9-4 in the Royals last 13 games as a favorite, and 6-1 in their last 7 games vs a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30 which they will see today in Matusz.  The OVER is also 6-2 in Hochezar’s last 8 starts, and 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 35-16 in these two teams last 51 meetings in Kansas City and 4-1 in Hochevar’s last 5 starts vs the Orioles.  The Royals have scored 4 or more runs in 8 of their last 11 games, while the Orioles have scored 4+ runs in 12 of their last 15 games and 5+ runs in 10 of those 12 games.  With the two pitchers we have on the mound and neither team struggling with scoring runs I see some value here on the OVER.

Overall 1-1 night, and I move on to Wednesday May 16th where have our 5th “5 Star” pick of the season going.

These picks are for members only and you can click here to sign up.

If you are already a member of the 5 STAR picks please check your email.

I have two picks going…

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox – WHITE SOX TO WIN (-124)  ***2:10 PM EST START***
Listed Pitchers: Scherzer vs Peavy
(Note: I’m risking 2.48 units to win 2.00 units)

– Not enough time here to get a full write up out, but  we are looking at Jake Peavy on the mound for Chicago who has been stellar.  Peavy is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and .189 opponents batting average.  He has faced Detroit twice this season allowing just 5 earned runs against over his 14.1 innings of work.  Also add to his impressive numbers his strikeout to walk ratio at 44 strikeouts and just 7 walks.  Peavy has been one of the best pitchers in the American League, and although Scherzer has looked good at times I give Peavy a pretty big edge here this afternoon.  Take the White Sox to sweep the Tigers in this 2 game series.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays – UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-103)
Listed Pitchers: Price vs Alvarez
(Note: I’m risking 2.06 units to win 2.00 units)

Tampa Bay took game 1 of this series 7-1, mainly due to a mixture of poor defense and tough plays that allowed the Rays to have a big 5th inning.  Tonight we see David Price on the mound vs the Blue Jays, who he loves to face.   In 13 career starts vs Toronto Price is 10-2 with a 2.13 ERA.  On the season he is 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .246 opponents batting average.  He has faced Toronto once this year going 5.2 innings allowing 2 earned runs for the win.  Henderson Alvarez takes the mound for Toronto and he has been sensational as of late.  Over his last three starts he has gone 22 innings allowing just 2 earned runs, getting the win in all three.  This season he is 3-2 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .227 opponents batting average.  He did get hit around by Tampa Bay earlier this season allowing 6 earned runs on 6 hits in 6.1 innings of work, but he has come along way since that start allowing just 4 earned runs in his next 4 starts.  The UNDER is 6-2-1 in the Rays last 9 road games, and 14-6-2 in their last 22 overall.  The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Jays last 6 overall, and 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog.  Note that the UNDER is also 5-1 in Alvarez’s last 6 starts as an underdog and 7-1 in his last 8 starts with a total set at 7-8.5.  Toronto couldn’t get their bats going last night and today they are facing a very good pitcher that has had their number in the past.  Look for Price and Alvarez to control this game and keep it a low scoring tight game.  I’m on the UNDER.

Monday we have a full board of MLB games, and I’ve got to plays going.

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox – TIGERS TO WIN (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Smyly vs Danks
(Note: I’m risking 2.30 units to win 2.00 units)

The Tigers are coming off a win yesterday to give them a 4 game split with the Oakland Athletics, while the White Sox dropped the rubber match game vs the Royals yesterday by a score of 9-1.   Detroit is now 17-17 on the year while the White Sox are third in the AL Central at 16-19.  Rookie Drew Smyly is back on the mound looking to improve on his impressive start to the season.  Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and .221 opponents batting average over his 6 starts.  Amongst those starts was a start vs the White Sox where he went 6 innings giving up 7 hits and just 2 earned runs while striking out 7 and walking none.  John Danks will be pitching for the White Sox to make it two lefties on the mound tonight.  Danks is 2-4 on the season with a 5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .263 opponents batting average.  He has yet to face the Tigers this season but over his career he is 4-7 with an ERA of 5.04 against them.  Danks allowed 2 earned runs against in his last start and that was the first time over his 7 starts this season where he didn’t allow 3+ earned runs against.  Although the Tigers are hitting a poor .220 against lefties this season the White Sox are hitting just .193 against left handed pitchers.  The Tigers are 53-21 in their last 74 games vs divisional opponents, and 23-11 in their last 34 games as a road favorite.  The White Sox are just 6-13 in their last 19 games overall, and 3-9 in their last 12 games following a loss.  The White Sox are also just 1-4 in Danks’ last 5 home starts, and 6-13 in his last 19 on 5 days rest.  The Tigers are 22-8 in their last 30 meetings vs the White Sox, and 12-5 in their last 17 meetings in Chicago.  Smyly has been a much better pitcher to date, and although the Tigers aren’t playing their best baseball the White Sox are really struggling.  Take Detroit to win tonight.

Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – ATHLETICS TO WIN (+182)
Listed Pitchers: Ross vs Haren
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 3.64 units)

Oakland split a 4 game series with the Tigers over the weekend, while the Angels lost 2 of 3 in Texas including last night’s 13-6 loss on Sunday Night Baseball.  The A’s are now 18-17 on the season and 9-7 on the road, while the Angels are just 15-20 on the year and 9-8 at home.  Tonight we have the same pitching match up we saw on April 17th in a 5-3 Oakland win.  Tyson Ross is just 1-3 on the season with a 7.71 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and .336 opponents batting average, but those numbers are inflated due to two poor outings @TB and @Balt.  Ross started the season off with two quality outings and allowed just 3 earned runs against in 5.2 innings of work against the Blue Jays in his last time out.  In his start vs the Angels he went 6 innings allowing 7 hits and 2 earned runs.  The Angels counter with Dan Haren who is 1-3 on the season with a 4.19 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .287 opponents batting average.  In his last star Haren went just 3.2 innings vs the Twins allowing 8 hits and 5 earned runs.  He has had three very quality starts this season, but hasn’t been consistent throughout the first month and a half of the season.  The Angels are just 1-6 in Haren’s 7 starts this season.  Note that the A’s are 2-3 in Ross’s starts.  Also note that the Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record and 1-5 in their last 6 vs AL West opponents. Los Angeles is also just 1-7 in Haren’s last 8 starts dating back to last season, and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  The A’s are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog and already took 3 of 4 in Los Angeles this season.  Take note that the Angels are 0-4 in Haren’s last 4 starts vs the Athletics.  With the Angels coming off a 6 game road trip including last night’s emotional lost in the Sunday Night’er it is going to be a good spot for the A’s who are fresh off a 6 game home stand.  The A’s have already won this same pitching match up earlier in the season, and they are in a good spot to pull it off again.  Take the A’s.

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers – DODGERS TO WIN (-142)
Listed Pitchers: White vs Lilly
(Note: I’m risking 2.84 units to win 2.00 units)

No full write up today which is normal for a Sunday, but I wanted to get a few quick points out.  The Dodgers are 14-3 at home, compared to the Rockies who are 5-9 on the road.  Ted Lilly has been stellar this season going 4-0 with a 1.41 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and .156 opponents batting average.  The Rockies are hitting just .238 against lefties, while the Dodgers are hitting .255 against righties.  Los Angeles has out scored opponents by an average of 2 runs at home, while the Rockies are getting outscored by almost a full run on the road.  This is a good place to lay a bit of chalk on a home team.

Please take note of the early start…

Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees – OVER 10 RUNS (+100)  ***4:05 PM EST START***
Listed Pitchers: Noesi vs Hughes
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)

New York took the first game of this series last night by a score of 6-2.  The Yankees have now won 5 of their last 7 games to improve to 18-14 on the season and 10-7 at home.  The Mariners fell to 15-19 on the year and 8-11 on the road with last night’s loss.  Tonight the Mariners send ex-Yankee Hector Noesi to the mound for his 7th start of the season.  Noesi is 2-3 with a 6.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and .254 opponents batting average.  He has worked 30 innings allowing 29 hits and 21 earned runs.  In his three road starts he has allowed 14 earned runs over 13.2 innings of work.  The Yankees will counter with Phil Hughes who might be trying to keep his job in the rotation.  Hughes is 2-4 on the season with a 6.67 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and .283 opponents batting average.  He has worked 28.1 innings allowing 34 hits and 21 earned runs.  His only good start at home came against the last place Minnesota Twins.  Last season Hughes was 5-5 with a 5.79 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .283 opponents batting average.  The Yankees had 14 hits last night, including a 4 for 4 night by Robinson Cano (who is 12 for 20 in his last 5 games).  They are scoring just under 5 runs per game on the season, and I don’t see them having much troubles at least getting to that number tonight.  While scoring 4.94 runs per game the Yankees are also giving up 4.41 runs against.  The Mariners are scoring 3.95 runs per game on the road, and giving up 4.42 against.  Note that the OVER is 7-3 in the Mariners last 10 road games vs a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 games vs a team with a losing record.  The OVER is also 20-8 in Hughes’ last 28 home starts, and 4-1-1 in his last 6 starts as a big favorite of -151 to -200.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in these two teams last 12 meetings overall and 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in New York.  Two struggling pitchers in Yankee Stadium is always worth a look at the OVER, and with the Yankees bats hot right now I think we have value even with a total set at 10 runs.  Take the OVER.

Friday I’m coming right back with a 5 STAR pick, as we look to move to 3-1 on the year with the big plays.

These 5 STAR picks are for clients only, and Friday’s pick has been sent out to all members via email.  If you want to sign up you can click here and you will receive the pick to your email instantly (just make sure that you complete your order and enter the email you’d like to receive the picks at).

This afternoon’s play is the play from last night with adjusted odds. Make sure you are betting on GAME #1 of the double-header in Baltimore…

Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles – RANGERS TO WIN (-123) **GAME #1 – 4:05 PM EST START**
Listed Pitchers: Lewis vs Chen
(Note: I’m risking 2.46 units to win 2.00 units)

–See yesterday’s post for the write up–

I’ve got two plays going today which includes a road favorite and a home underdog…

Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles – RANGERS TO WIN (-121)
Listed Pitchers: Lewis vs Chen
(Note: I’m risking 2.42 units to win 2.00 units)

The Texas Rangers will look to lock up this 4 game series against the Orioles by winning tonight’s game.  This one follows a historic night where Josh Hamilton went 5 for 5 including 4 home runs for 18 total bases – an unbelievable performance.  Texas is now 20-10 on the season, and 12-5 away from home.  The Orioles are still an impressive 19-11 on the season and 8-6 at home.  Texas has won 7 straight meetings between these two clubs and are looking for #8 tonight behind Colby Lewis.  Lewis is 3-1 on the season with a 2.97 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .267 opponents batting average.  Lewis started the season with 5 straight quality starts before being roughed up a little in his last start at Cleveland (10 hits and 6 earned runs over 6.2 innings).  Take away that last starts and Lewis has been stellar.  Rookie southpaw Wei-Yin Chen takes the mound for the Orioles tonight.  He is 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and .250 opponents batting average.  Take note that the Rangers are hitting .308 against lefties with a .364 OBP.  In comparison the Orioles are hitting .243 against righties with a .303 OBP.  I look for Colby Lewis to return to his form and out pitch Chen who is facing a Texas team who has scored 24 runs in the past two nights and are averaging 5.67 runs per game.  Take the Rangers.

Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros – ASTROS TO WIN (+141)
Listed Pitchers: Johnson vs Harrell
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 2.82 units)

Both teams are looking for their third straight series victory tonight in the rubber match game.  Miami won the first game 4-0 and the Astros took last night’s game 3-2 as big +155 underdogs.  Tonight we will see Josh Johnson on the mound for Miami, who is having a lot of struggles returning to form after his injury last season.  JJ is 0-3 on the year with a 6.61 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and .359 opponents batting average.  In his latest start he lasted just 2.2 innings allowing 6 hits and 6 earned runs against a Padres team who doesn’t hit well.  Going up against Johnson tonight is Lucas Harrel who is 2-2 on the season with a 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .269 opponents batting average.  Harrell has been a bit of a roller coaster ride this year with a few good starts and a few not so good starts.  Take note that the Astros are scoring almost a full run more per game than the Marlins at 4.50 compared to 3.53.  The Marlins are also scoring just 3.16 runs per game on the road.  Houston is hitting .259 against righties while the Marlins are hitting just .235 against righties.  Take note that Miami is just 4-9 in Johnson’s last 13 road starts.  The Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 games overall and 7-2 in their last 9 home games.  Johnson is still being overvalued, and I think the Astros have a good shot at winning tonight.  Make a play on the Astros at a generous underdog price.

Before I move on to today’s pick I want to again let you know about my buddy Steve’s golf picks.  This weekend we hit our second straight winner with Rickie Fowler at 45/1.  To put that into perspective for you – a $10 bet on him paid $450, while a $100 bet paid $4,500.  On the season that is his 5th winning pick for over +100 units of PROFIT ($100 bettors up $10,000).  I know a good handful of you are already signed up and some of you emailed me to thank me again this week, but for those who aren’t signed up I highly recommend you check out his membership at www.GolfBanker.com for this week’s Players Championship.

Ok on to today’s winner…

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs – CUBS TO WIN (-107)
Listed Pitchers: Delgado vs Dempster
(Note: I’m risking 2.14 units to win 2.00 units)

The Cubs put together a 5-1 win last night against the Braves to start the series off on the right foot.  The victory for the Cubs was their 2nd straight and 3rd in their last 4 games which puts them at 12-17 on the season (8-9 at home).  The loss for the Braves snapped a 3 game winning streak and has them in second in the NL East with a 18-12 record (10-7 on the road).  Atlanta will send Randall Delgado to the mound tonight.  Delgado is 2-3 on the season with a 5.14 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and .271 opponents batting average.  After starting the season 2-0 he has dropped 3 straight starts to fall to 2-3.  His most recent start was the longest of his career going 8 innings allowing 6 hits and 2 earned runs.  He has allowed 29 hits over 28 innings of work on the season.  Ryan Dempster will take the mound for the Cubs looking for his first win of the season.  Despite not having a win under his belt Dempster leads the Majors with a 0.95 ERA over his 4 starts this year, and his lack of wins can be blamed on his run support.  Dempster has been lights out with his 0.95 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and .144 opponents batting average.  Over his 28.1 innings of work he has allowed just 14 hits, 3 earned runs while striking out 29 batters and walking just 9.  Dempster is going to win more games than he losses if he continues to pitch like he is, and I think the Cubs break out for him tonight.  Winners of 4 of their last 6 games, which includes a walk-off victory on Sunday and a 5-1 win last night over the Braves, I think Chicago will feel confident tonight and give Dempster enough run support to get the win.  With the better pitcher on the mound take the Cubs at a very generous price at home.